Vandevoorde and Vanhoucke(2006)整理出目前主要三種專案結束時所需工期的預測方法，分別為計劃價值法(the planned value method)、實獲工期法(the earned duration method)、和實獲時程法(the earned schedule method)；Teicholz(1993)運用過去的平均績效衡量專案成本未完成部分，提出平滑移動平均法(sliding moving average, SMA)。張喬智(2009)將Teicholz(1993)與實獲時程法所提出的觀念做結合，以平滑移動平均法預測專案工期。 然而，張喬智所提平滑移動平均法(SMA)的平滑機制未考慮各期的波動幅度。本研究認為當近期時程績效變動太大時需要更多的過去期數平均來緩和此劇烈變動，因此，本研究將修正平滑移動平均法使其成為一個穩定且能確實反映近期績效，以嘗試改善專案工期預測的準確性。 修正後平滑移動平均法，經本研究以加權平均混合排名以及符號檢定與其他10種預測方法做比較後，證明修正平滑移動平均法有相當出色的預測能力。 關鍵字: 計劃價值法，實獲工期法，實獲時程法，平滑移動平均法

Vandevoorde and Vanhoucke(2006) presented three major forecasting methods for project duration. These three major forecasting methods are the planned value method, the earned duration method, the earned schedule method. Teicholz (1993) forecasts the remained cost of the remaining work using the average past performance and proposed the sliding moving average(SMA). To forecast project final duration,Chang (2009) proposed a sliding moving average method on the base of earned schedule method.However, the sliding moving average method proposed by Chang (2009) didn’t consider fluctuation range of the unit duration. This study deemed that the number of time periods used for the moving average varies depending on the stability of project performance from period to period. Therefore, this study proposed a revised sliding moving average method which can dynamically reflect recent performance of project and improve the accuracy of forecasting the final duration of project.The revised sliding moving average that this study Compared with others forecast methods by weighted average composite rank and sign test. To prove that The revised sliding moving average is better then others forecast methods.

目錄 中文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iii 英文摘要　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． iv 誌謝　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． v 內容目錄　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． vi 表目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． viii 圖目錄　　．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． ix 第一章　　緒論．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1 　　第一節　　研究背景．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 1 　　第二節　　研究動機．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 2 　　第三節　　研究目的．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 3 　　第四節　　研究流程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 4 第二章　　文獻探討．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 6 　　第一節　　實獲值管理．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 6 　　第二節　　實獲時程．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 11 　　第三節　　專案結束時所需工期的預測方法．．．．．． 15 　　第四節　　平滑移動平均法．．．．．．．．．．．．． 25 第三章　　研究方法．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 31 　　第一節　　修正平滑移動平均法．．．．．．．．．．． 33 　 第二節　 累加實獲時程平均每百分之一所需工期法．． 37 　　第三節　　個別實獲時程平均每百分之一所需工期法．． 37 　　第四節　　預測能力的衡量．．．．．．．．．．．．． 38 第四章　　數據整理與分析．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 41 　　第一節　　權重的選取．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 41 　　第二節　　11種預測方法之比較 ．．．．．．．．．． 43 　　第三節　　符號檢定．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 46 　　第四節　　虛擬案例．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 49 第五章　　結論與建議 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 56 參考文獻　 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 58 附錄　 ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．． 62

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